I Was WrongPosted on October 24, 2013 by Ben Bruno
Before the season started I wrote a blog about whether or not Ovechkin would score 50 goals this year. To quickly summarize the blog, I wrote that he would continue to be a prolific scorer on the power play, but that his goals at even strength would diminish, thus preventing him from reaching the 50 goal mark.
It's only nine games into the season, but I might already have to eat my words. Ovie has nine goals, five coming at even-strength, and four on the power play. He is averaging 6.78 shots per game this year and has a shooting percentage of 14.8. If he plays a full season (82 games) and keeps up his current pace, he's on track for almost an 80-goal season.
It's unlikely that he'll maintain his current shooting percentage, but even if you drop it down to his career mark (12.2%), then he's on pace for 66 goals. I'm not saying he'll reach this number, but if he keeps shooting as much as he has been, then 50 goals is certainly in reach (and fellow TTR contributor Brad Herson agrees). He hasn't had a game with less than four shots so far this year and we all know Ovie has never seen a shot he didn't want to take, so I expect him to at least maintain his career shots per game of 5.10, keeping 50 certainly within reach.
There's still a lot of season left for Ovie to cool down and come back to earth, but if he doesn't, I'll gladly be wrong.